Numbers that Matter: UGA vs. UK Edition

In the immortal words of James Earl Jones, I’m back baby. (Hold on, did he say that? Probably at some point, anyway rest in power, king.) Each week, we at Chapel Bell Curve, in conjunction with Ross Rutledge over at r2sportsmetrics, publish two things: first, a quickie predictive preview of Georgia’s upcoming games where we project relevant stats, and second, an updated advanced stats sheet that allows you to compare any two teams based on the advanced metrics we think matter. You can - and should - follow the links above to learn more, but if you’re strapped for time, let me take you through the numbers I think are relevant for this week’s tilt in the Commonwealth.

(Side note: did you know that there are four US states that call themselves commonwealths? That’s wild to me. The other three are Massachussettes, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Little bit of little brother syndrome from the 15th state in the union, trying to catch up to #’s 10, 2, and 6.)

Anyway, now that I’ve gotten my hyperfixation out of my system, let’s look at what the numbers tell us. First up, let’s check out our projections. 

Projection numbers that matter: 

7.2 - The number of opportunities (trips inside the opponent’s 40) that our model projects UGA to have this weekend. We have UK with 3.4. If that turns out to be accurate, it’s gonna be a long day at Kroger field for the C - A - T - S Cats, Cats, Cats. 

So far this year, Kentucky has had a pretty good rushing offense, and an absolutely atrocious passing game. In fact, they rank 132nd in pass success rate nationally. If Georgia can stop the run, and keep Kentucky from having productive drives – which evidence suggests that they can – this game could get out of hand. 

29.3 - Our predicted  available yards per possession for Kentucky. In other words, we think that the average gain for a Wildcat drive will be 29 yards. That paints a pretty vivid picture. Our projections think that the average drive when UK has the ball will end in a punt on the UGA 46. Throw in some rain, and Kirby’s propensity for laying on less talented opponents until they suffocate, and this could be a plodding game. 

285 – As in 285 predicted pass yards for Carson Beck and the boys. This falls in line with what we’ve seen so far from Beck. Competence at a level that is almost boring. He’s so comfortable in the Georgia offense that things that are actually really hard look easy. 285 yards against an SEC opponent is hard, no matter what the talent differential is. I suspect that, barring some dumb turnovers, we’ll see that level of “boredom” on Saturday as well. 

Let’s move on to our advanced stats sheet. Unlike our predictions above, these are backwards-facing stats. They give us an idea of how a team has performed to this point this year, as opposed to our predictions, which project what a team will do going forwards. The stats sheet for this week's matchup looks like this: 

There’s a lot going on here, so let’s break down how to read this chart. Each stat has a bar for each side of both teams, which you can compare against each other, as well as against the national average, which is in between them. If you go to the live sheet here, you can mouse over each bar to see the team’s national rank exactly. Having said that, here are some numbers that matter. 

Advanced Stats numbers that matter: 

1 - As in Kentucky’s rank in defensive havoc generated. Kentucky is generating havoc plays (int’s, tfl’s, sacks, fumbles, and passes defensed) on fully 35% of its defensive snaps. Even in a horrible loss to S. Carolina, the Cats managed to generate 4 sacks and 13 tackles for loss. They also forced 4 fumbles and picked of the ‘Cocks’ starting QB LaNorriss Sellers once. Suffice to say, this is a team that takes advantage of its opportunities. The Dawgs are going to need to be careful with the ball on Saturday – a task made more difficult by the possibility of bad weather. 

40 - The percentage of run plays that Kentucky’s defense has stuffed this year. This is good for 6th in the nation. There’s a huge small sample size error going on here, given that UK has yet to play a team with RB and OL talent near UGA’s, but it’s important to keep in mind. You would think that, given Kirby Smart’s philosophies and the bad weather, Georgia might come out this weekend and RTDB. I expect they will, and with success, but don’t be surprised if it’s tough sledding, especially in the first half. 

76 - Kentucky’s national rank in rush down EPA added. Rush downs, or running downs, are times when an offense is more likely to run. Think 1st or 2nd down, with a to-go distance of under 9. They’re not good in what we would think of as “normal” down and distance situations. They’re actually pretty good in passing downs, chiefly because Brock Vandagriff has never seen a deep route he hasn’t liked. However, if UGA can make hay on 1st and 2nd down, and force BVG to chuck it, the Dawgs are also more likely to turn him over, something he has already done 3 times this year. 

So taken together, what do these numbers say? 

Given Kentucky’s atrocious play against USC jr., everyone and their mother, including 100% of Chapel Bell Curve LLC, is picking the Dawgs to win big. While these numbers, don’t necessarily contradict this idea, they fact is that Kentucky’s multitude of turnovers and poor QB play probably made their game agains the Gamecocks seem like more of a blowout than it actually was. I’m not saying to be worried, because I know that you as a UGA fan already are, I’m just saying that the Cats have played explosive defense this year so far, and seem likely to attempt some damn-the-torpedoes deep balls against a relatively untested Georgia secondary. 

Does that mean we’re primed for an upset? Not really, but this Kentucky team has been playing extremely high-variance football for two weeks, and watched it blow up in their face in one of them. When you’re at a talent disadvantage, playing high-variance ball is one of your only options to make up for the gap. Kentucky is going to roll the dice a lot this weekend. It probably won’t work. But this is a game played with an irregularly shaped ball by teenage millionaires. Weirder things have happened. 

By the way, if you want to hear more about what we think will happen this weekend, check our Kentucky preview. If you want to yell at me, you can find us on Twitter and Bluesky @chapelbellcurve.