It’s Nathan again. Proprietor of Chapel Bell Curve, everyone’s favorite UGA podcast that is only tangentially about college football. In the existential sense, I’m here today because I was in marching band in high school and didn’t get many dates, so stats about football was my coping mechanism. In a more specific sense, I’m here today to talk about the win projections that Ross Rutledge, proprietor of r2sportsmetrics has derived from our power ranking index, CBCR2.
So, without further ado, let’s look at the teams our numbers say are most likely to go undefeated. (You can find the full list here)
A couple of things stand out to me here. One, if Oregon beats Ohio State, they’ll be in the catbird seat for making a top-4 seed this year. The Ducks play out-of-conference foes Boise State and Oregon State (what the hell), and outside of Ohio State, their most daunting opponents are Michigan and Washington teams that have been heavily depleted by coaching departures and graduation. This isn’t necessarily to say I think that Oregon is a shoe-in, as stepping on a rake against an underwhelming conference opponent is a Big Ten tradition, but it does illustrate the degree to which scheduling is vital to our new 12 team playoff dystopia/utopia.
Over the past 25 years, there has been a series of pendulum swings in how athletic directors schedule. The first 150 years of college football were essentially defined by regionalism. Teams played teams in their state, and in states that bordered their state. If you want an illustration of how locked-in this kind of thinking is, look at how intensely UGA celebrated their 1943 appearance in the Rose Bowl. This regional identity has slowly eroded in the past 35 years. The rise of national sports networks, live sports streaming, and conference realignment have made this a truly national sport for better and for worse. Starting in the 2010’s and continuing through the 4 team CFP era, AD’s began scheduling more splashy out of conference opponents from across the nation. Georgia’s 2011 loss to Boise State is a great example of this philosophy. It’s also a great example of what the red power ranger would look like if he had a football uniform, but that’s a different article. This aggressive scheduling approach, however, may find its days numbered. While there is more leeway for teams to take additional losses, the rise of the super conference in the SEC and Big Ten eats up some of that wiggle room. In short, if everyone has a hard schedule, teams are unlikely to get extra credit for losing to someone from outside of their conference.
If you want a further illustration of this point, look at Texas. CBCR2 gives them ~58% chance to go 10 - 2 or 9 - 3. While these records aren’t necessarily disqualifying in a playoff that will almost certainly take at least 3 teams from the SEC, they could cost Texas a playoff bye. Outside of the matchup with the Dawgs, America’s Ground Beef Team – I’ll never forgive your aggression against Uga, Bevo – faces Michigan, TAMU, and Oklahoma, ranked 9th, 10th, and 13th respectively.
Ultimately, this simulation illuminates our brave new CFB world. For fans of a sport that has historically valued the mythical undefeated season above all else, this should be a wake up call. We’re living in a world where 10-2 Texas could play 11-2 UGA in the title game as a rematch. I don’t have anything wise to say about that. So I suppose I’ll leave you with the immortal words of America’s greatest philosopher, Samuel L. Jackson: Hold onto your butts.
If you liked this article, check out my first episode of CBCR Quickie, my show with the famous Ross Rutledge. We talk about his preseason rankings and get into the nitty gritty of the stats more there.
Also, if you want more shenanigans, check out our newest episode of Chapel Bell Curve here, where we go over our off-season, smack talk for the new entrants into the SEC, and the folk heroes of this year's Olympics.
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