12 TAKEAWAYS GEORGIA VS TENNESSEE TECH - How do we Quantify the 0th Percentile?

12 Takeaways - Georgia vs Tennessee Tech 

1) In many ways, a game against an FCS opponent is much harder to evaluate than an out of conference contest against Clemson, or an in-conference game against an SEC opponent. We’re dealing with a lower tier team, and we know that Georgia is supposed to win emphatically. Georgia can pretty much name it's score in a game like the one it played yesterday, and we know that Kirby Smart isn’t going to run up 70 points on an obscure FCS team for no reason. That’s the type of thing that coaches do when they’re struggling to sell their vision and job security is in question. The simple conundrum… How do we measure success beyond the scoreboard?

2) In a game like this, all things are relative… We know that UGA uses these types of opponents to play a lot of players and practice things that need polishing. We also know that the Bulldogs keep the play calling vanilla and force their units to execute base run concepts against stacked boxes. Sometimes that turns these out of conference buy games into a massive slog. That doesn’t mean they can’t be informative though. Let’s start with the big picture- Georgia outgained Tennessee Tech by SIX YARDS PER PLAY (!!!) yesterday in Athens before garbage time kicked in during the final quarter. The Dawgs averaged 8.15 yards per play and held TnTech to 2.15 YPP. Looking back at how that compares to some past performances against similar opponents- UGA was +3.9 YPP vs UT-Martin last year (8.0 to 4.1) and +2.9 vs Ball State (6.3 to 3.4). The closest thing I could find to yesterday’s +6.0 Net YPP during UGA’s current run was a +5.7 Net YPP in the 56-7 win over UAB in 2021 (9.0 to 3.3). To put this defensive performance in perspective, Game On Paper has the 2.15 yards per play by Tennessee Tech ranked in the 0th percentile of its database. We could all live the rest of our live without seeing Georgia do this to an opponent again. 

3) If you’ve been here for a while you know the rule- Elite teams (Read “elite” as teams that qualified for the old four-team CFP) have an average Net Yard Per Play differential of +2.0 or higher. Georgia’s 2024 Net YPP Differential is now up to +4.92. Calling that number elite is honestly an understatement. It’s beyond dominant. The question we have to ask here- Are the teams this occurred against REALLY bad, or is Georgia really good? I mean, even the historic 2021 defense never held an opponent to 2.15 YPP… Well, Clemson went out last night and put up 9.74 YPP on offense against Appalachian State. That was a 99th percentile level performance by the Tigers’ offense, and QB Cade Klubnik went 24/26 for 378 YDS and 5 TD’s a week after UGA held him to 142 YDS and 1 INT on 18/29 passing. The Tigers had 42 points and 379 total yards after just 17 minutes of game time last night… As for Tennessee Tech, they are an FCS team, but they had FBS Middle Tennessee State on the ropes in Week 1 and outgained the Blue Raiders by 0.4 YPP in a 32-25 loss. They’re not supposed to give UGA a game, but they did gain 5.2 YPP on offense the week before coming to Athens. They also passed for 274 YDS and 3 TD’s in that game on the road at MTSU. 

4) If you didn’t notice the theme above quite yet, the thing that is really standing out statistically is the defense. Georgia held Clemson to -6.1 yards per play less than App State. The Bulldogs held TnTech to -3.1 yards per play less than they put up the week prior… All of that sounds great statistically, but here’s the thing… The on-field performance was reflective of that dominance. As I watched the game yesterday, I cussed under my breath over at over at the defenders who were in the backfield before the TnTech RB’s could take the handoff. I looked on wide eyed as UGA’s LB’s ate up what made it to the line of scrimmage, and I watched with slight amazement as a team that passed on a little over 69% of its downs the week before abandoned throwing after seeing UGA’s pass rush in person on a couple snaps. Tennessee Tech was so convinced passing would end in danger that they ran the ball 40 times and threw it 8 yesterday. I type this while wondering how many offenses in college football history have gone from 69% pass to 83% run within the span of 7 days. That is the type of talent that Georgia has. 

5) Since there were only 8 of them, let’s get those passes out of the way real quick. Technically, the Golden Eagles did dropback to pass on 13 occasions on Saturday. They only managed to get 8 throws off and they mustered just 5 completions for 18 yards through the air. Georgia’s first team secondary allowed essentially nothing of substance, and its second-team didn’t really either. When TTU did get passes off, the average time to throw was just 2.43 seconds. Despite that, Georgia managed to get 8 QB Pressures and 3 sacks. They came from 7 different defenders. KJ Bolden got his first career sack and DT Christen Miller got a deserved sack after a high work rate last week versus Clemson. Jalon Walker, Smael Mondon, Joseph Jonah-Ajonye and Jamaal Jarrett all got in on the act and recorded pressures. What was eye opening was the play of freshman DL Jordan Thomas. The New Jersey native is extremely athletic and flashed a lot of quickness on the inside of the defensive line. At 6’5” and 320 pounds, he looks like another big body who can help UGA on the interior. Above all, the sheer number of front seven athletes who are big, strong and fast is a bit hard to fathom. 

6) The dominance in the yards per play battle is actually more impressive when you consider all of the rush attempts by TnTech. It’s not like they just trotted out a QB who went on a cold streak throwing. At one point, they ran the ball 20 times in a row. Georgia fit its gaps and set its edges over and over and over. It was an impressive team defensive performance. The standout to my eye was Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins. We’ve known he can rush the passer with speed, and I’ve always said he could be an elite player if he learned to two-gap and play the run with efficiency. This may have been an FCS opponent, but my word it was a gorgeous display by Ingram-Dawkins. He was on the field for 17 run plays, and he made 4 tackles across those snaps. All 4 were ”STOP” plays** as well. In fact, the average depth of tackle for Ingram-Dawkins on those 4 stops was -0.8 yards behind the line of scrimmage. He just smoothly followed the play down the line before shedding a block and exploding into a bear hug of the ball carrier. He was an absolute stud, and it might make him a true three-down lineman for Georgia moving forwards. 

Ingram-Dawkins played the most snaps of any defensive linemen on Saturday, and that is a reminder of sorts that Georgia looked this deep and athletic despite having Mykel Williams, Warren Brinson, Jordan Hall and Xzavier McLeod out of the game because of injuries. It’s way too early to ask if this front seven could be the best we’ve seen under Kirby- It will take some real incredible play to put it in a conversation with the 2021 group, and I don’t know if that’s possible. What I will say is that this group certainly seems on track to be the deepest front seven that Kirby has had. There are waves and waves of bodies and they are all executing at a high level so far.

**STOP plays consist of failures for the offense. They are 1st down plays that get less than 40% of the yardage needed for a first down, 2nd down plays that gain less than 50% of the yardage needed for a first down, and 3rd and 4th down plays that fail to gain a first down. 

7) Ingram-Dawkins was the most prolific of the Bulldogs’ defenders on Saturday, but the run defense was a brick wall across the board. 30.4% of TnTech’s carries were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage in this game. The front seven recorded a tackle for loss, sack or fumble recovery on an astounding 44.4% of plays before garbage time. That is the highest havoc rate ratio I have seen in an advanced stat box score since I began doing this piece. Georgia’s defense recorded STOP plays on 21 of its 32 tackles against the run, and the Bulldogs held TTU to a 23% Success Rate in the 1st quarter before allowing 29% in the 2nd quarter and 0% in the 3rd quarter before garbage time kicked in and starters were pulled for the end of the game… When asking ourselves how Georgia achieved this we must look at some numbers from the LB’s that popped. CJ Allen recorded a tackle on 23.1% of his snaps as a run defender (3 TKLS in 13 RDEF snaps) and his Avg Depth of Tackle was just 3.7 YDS. That output was second only to Ingram-Dawkins’s 23.5% tackle rate. Allen’s running mate Raylen Wilson had 2 tackles in 13 RDEF snaps. Freshmen ILB’s Chris Cole and Justin Williams got in on the fun with 1 STOP play each despite playing just 5 RDEF snaps apiece. Cole and WIlliams look like freshmen at times, but you see why they’re five-stars every time they hit the field. They fly around the place and when they read something right they hit it for a loss or no gain immediately. I’m already starting to wonder if Cole might be the best LB that UGA has from a pass coverage standpoint. I think he’s got a chance to force his way into some packages with the first team, and he could probably play a STAR type of role against 2 TE sets… The amount of talent roaming around in the ILB room is truly insane. This group could have 4-5 future first rounders in it, and I don’t think that’s overly optimistic. 

😎 What’s surprising about this performance is that it happened despite UGA missing 10 tackles on defense. Most of those came from reserves, but Miller missed one and so did Raylen Wilson. There was a 3rd & long dump off that Damon Wilson was responsible for stopping and he missed it badly. That play was a bit concerning in that UGA needs Wilson to be comfortable dropping into coverage and tackling RB’s on angle routes and screens. The only bulldog with multiple missed tackles was Jalon Walker. One of those came on a play where he read the run and shot the gap perfectly, but he just sort of bounced off the RB’s lower body when he got to the football. Walker could be the ultimate weapon on Georgia’s defense in 2024. He will be the lynchpin in various pressure packages, but it is important that he tackles soundly for that to happen. 

That UGA missed those tackles and still turned in this performance is scary in a way. It tells us just how quickly the Bulldogs swarm to the football. This defense is going to be hard to stretch out and create matchups against. They arrive to help one another extremely quick. 

9) On offense, things were rather vanilla by UGA standards, but the gameplan showed us once again that Bobo in 2024 is a very different animal than Bobo of a decade ago. Georgia kept things basic, but they still ran motion on 19.7% of plays. That was less than half the percentage of motion snaps Georgia ran last week but it is still a higher percentage of motion plays than 13 SEC teams ran in Week 1. Put another way, UGA’s basic offense is more complicated than most. This is a complex and sophisticated system that requires everyone on the field to understand a deep playbook filled with lots of eye candy. The plus side to that is that it can force almost any back seven player into a matchup in space if UGA wants to create one. 

At the helm of this intricate machine is Beck. His performance in this game was a case study in cleanliness. Bobo asked him to throw to all levels of the field (20% of ATT’s on throws of 20+ YDS, 28% of ATT’s 10-19 YDS, 24% of ATT’s 0-9 YDS and 28% of ATT’s behind the line of scrimmage) without forcing anything that wasn’t there. 

• 20+ YDS: 3 for 5, 109 YDS, 21.8 YPA & 3 TD’s
• 10-19 YDS: 4/7, 48 YDS, 6.9 YPA & 1 TD
• 0-9 YDS: 4/6, 37 YDS, 6.2 YPA & 1 TD
• Behind LOS: 7/7, 48 YDS, 6.9 YPA 

Beck passed the test by having 0 interceptable passes in his 28 dropbacks. Through 2 weeks, Carson has gone back to pass 64 times and has yet to put the ball into danger. With how good this defense is looking, that could make Georgia impossible to beat. 

As for Beck’s backup, I thought this was Gunner Stockton’s best game in a Georgia uniform. My criticism of him has always been that he puts the ball into dangerous places, stares down his primary read, and runs too often if his first option isn’t open. In this game we saw some real improvement in those areas. He made 0 interceptable throws, and he completed every pass he threw except for the 2 attempts he had over 20 yards. The absolute BEST thing I can say about his game on Saturday was the fact he ran what was called. Georgia asked him to run 13 pass plays, and on those 13 dropbacks he threw 12 passes. He only threw 19 passes on 25 dropbacks in 2023. All in all, throwing the ball for 90 yards on 10/12 passing showed that he can function within the offense. He made some nice throws on rollouts, and was 4/4 for 47 YDS when blitzed. He averaged 2.90 seconds to throw on those plays, which is a bit long, but still an improvement. I would stop short of saying that he’s ready to knock off Texas on the road, but I think UGA can win games with him if it was forced to rely on him against a couple SEC opponents. His output was made more impressive by the fact that it came with the reserve wideouts in the game. 

10) Beck’s 5 TD’s all came the hard way- None of them were off of screens. Georgia ran 6 screens early, and they netted 44 yards (7.7 YPA). That wasn’t eye popping, but it is efficient. I thought the perimeter blocking on those snaps left some things to be desired at times. I also thought Arian Smith tried to cut inside on one when he should’ve used his speed to outrun the defense to the boundary. On the whole, I think UGA’s wideouts need to get better with their blocking on the perimeter. That is especially true within the framework of WR screens. We know Coley is the right guy to tighten that up, but the consistency needs to improve in that department. If it does, UGA can get more easy yardage and take some pressure off Beck down the road. The good news for the Dawgs was that Lovett had some nice blocks in this game and was UGA’s third highest graded run blocker on Saturday. That is a huge statement on his buy-in. This was an FCS opponent, not a big game with dozens of scouts in the press box. A year ago, Lovett really struggled to block anyone. Now he’s working hard out there. He had 3 catches for 33 yards in this game, but it feels like there is a lot more meat on the bone for him. Lovett forced another missed tackle this week, and that’s a big deal for UGA. The Dawgs only got 5 forced missed tackles out of Lovett in all of 2023. 

Within the parlance of the long con, this game didn’t tell us a ton about the WR’s. The route concepts were never overly complex, and the only thing that seemed really clear was Georgia’s desire to get Beck and Arian Smith to connect on a downfield shot or two. The players who saw the most work were the same guys we already identified as feature receivers. Arian was the leader in targets with 6, and tied Dillon Bell for the most catches on the day (4 each with Bell getting 5 targets). Smith caught two passes behind the line and then a 14 yarder on the right boundary before Beck finally connected with him behind the defense for a 50 yard TD in the 3rd quarter. I know it was an FCS defense, but the way the DB’s bit on his double move showed how establishing Smith on shorter routes could pay off down the road. His Yards per Route Run for the season is now a very nice 2.48. 

Other interesting things about the pass catchers…

• Even before Delp’s injury, it was starting to feel more and more like Luckie is the #1 receiving option at TE. His speed showed again on Saturday on the 37 yard TD catch, and he had the 4th most receiving snaps of any Bulldog. He has now had +2.50 YRR in each of his first 2 games this season. 
• I was impressed with the way Sacovie White looked in this game. He moves a bit differently than most guys, and I think he will work his way into some first-team reps by the time UGA hits the meat of its schedule. 
• Trevor Etienne was on the field for 13 passes and ran 10 routes. You saw Beck dump it off to him a couple times, and it was reminiscent of how Stetson Bennett used to toss it out to McIntosh when the defense backed off into a zone. Those yards are extremely valuable for an offense and they’re easy for the QB. He will be big for Georgia in the passing game as well as the run game. 
• UGA had 197 yards after the catch in this one, which is good medicine for any offense. That number was helped by UGA pass catchers forcing 8 missed tackles after the catch. 
• I’m still monitoring the WR separation. The route concepts on Saturday were definitely not very complex, and I think it’s fair to say UGA isn’t trying to show its cards with certain pass catchers- Humphreys never had a target in a game where 15 players had a catch. I’m interested to see if a guy like Evans or White emerges more in addition to Humphreys. Speed is going to be important for Georgia moving forwards. 

11) We saw on Saturday just how high the ceiling for this offense can be. When UGA got both the run and the pass going there was no real governor on this system. That is especially true when so many wideouts are establishing themselves as a threat to create a big play or score a TD. Beck’s passing numbers were helped by the respect that TnTech had to have for the play-action fakes. Beck was on fire off play-action, going 10/11 for 133 YDS (12.1 YPA) and 2 TD’s. 

How deep is this RB room? Georgia had 22 carries in this game for 175 yards and a TD. That’s a nice round 8.0 YPA, and it came by way of 5 different backs touching the ball. Nobody had more than 6 carries in this game, which felt like a decision made around trying to keep everyone healthy for the road ahead. 

We should start this conversation with Etienne. We got our first look at him in a real game, and goodness is he smooth. On the 45 yard run we saw what he’s capable of when he gets to hit the second level without having to dodge a defender. It was an impressive display of his speed, vision, cutting ability and acceleration. On the day, Etienne had 3 missed tackles forced on just 5 carries. He finished the afternoon with 78 rushing yards and 69 of them came after contact. I know this was an FCS defense, but the type of plus value that creates for Georgia is significant. He is a guy who can create yards even when they aren’t there. Putting him together with Frazier feels like a bit of a cheat code, especially behind this offensive line. 

We saw more of Frazier on Saturday, and it was more confirmation that he has a rare burst. It was a short appearance, but those feet are insanely quick. He is going to be a big part of this offense. 

I thought Branson’s appearance was just what the doctor ordered. His TD run let him flash the quickness we’d heard about throughout fall camp. It also showed that he still has plenty of power to bowl someone over. His catches out of the backfield were nice as well, and that feels like a dimension of his game UGA really wants to feature more. In total, Branson had 3 rushes and 2 receptions for 43 yards. He forced 4 missed tackles across those 5 touches. It’ll be interesting to see what this does for his confidence moving forward. 

12) As predicted, Georgia ran a ton of Inside Zone in this one. Well, a ton relative to the 20 designed rush attempts it had on the ground. The Dawgs ran Inside Zone or Inside Zone Read on 12 plays, and had a 67% Success Rate while running Inside Zone concepts for an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. Georgia’s Inside Zone runs helped it stay on schedule while also achieving some explosive gains. This week’s Rushing Success Rate jumped up to 65%, which was exactly what the Bulldogs needed after being a bit inefficient on the ground last week. In total, UGA had a 63% Offensive Success Rate before garage time. That mixed with some explosives made for a really nice day for UGA. The offense bogged down in the red zone late in the first half, but the Bulldogs still had 5.86 points per opportunity on 7 tips inside the opponent’s 40 yard-line, which is excellent. One other interesting scheme note was that UGA’s usage of Jet Motion continued on 8 snaps (5 passes for 11.2 YPP and 3 runs for 7 YPP). That showing up even against an FCS team makes it feel central to what Bobo and the offensive staff want to do with this team. 

At the core of this attack is the offensive line. I was struck by just how deep that group looked on Saturday. It’s hard to judge any one player’s ability to cut it in big SEC games by how they performed against an FCS team, but the unit functioned well through many rotations. Beck was pressured on just 3 dropbacks. 

I thought Micah Morris answered Kirby Smart’s challenge with a really nice performance in this game. His 40 snaps were second only to Jared Wilson and he was UGA’s highest graded pass blocker. Fairchild looked dominant for stretches, but Morris is an important piece for UGA’s depth on the interior. I also liked what we saw from Bo Hughley and Jahzare Jackson at tackle. That room suddenly feels a bit deeper and more promising than it did a few weeks ago. Everyone I speak with who played OL at a high level is excited about Jackson’s upside. The player who surprised me the most on Saturday may have been Drew Bobo. He looked bigger and more athletic than I realized, and he did a great job getting upfield and cleaning up the second level. He looks like the next man up at Center, and his development has been impressive so far. 

Lots of attention gets paid every fall to the skill positions, but at its core this sport is played from the inside out. Georgia’s OL showed more playable guys on Saturday than I can ever remember seeing. That makes me feel like this team’s floor could be as high as any Kirby Smart has had during this run, but more will be revealed as the competition steps up over the next month.