Advanced Stat/Scheme Preview - Georgia vs Clemson

Advanced Stat/Scheme Preview - Georgia vs Clemson

And suddenly, it was football season… Here we are on game week, as UGA starts the toughest regular season schedule it has seen in years with a regional rivalry in the same building where its bid for a three-peat was foiled last December. 

Talk throughout the offseason has centered around trips to Tuscaloosa, Austin and Oxford, but don’t be mistaken- This is an important football game. Teams can afford a loss or two with the new 12-team playoff format, but the aforementioned road trips loom large in the distance for UGA. Their presence makes it even more important for Georgia to start the 2024 season with a win. 

The Tigers were part of every College Football Playoff from 2015-2020. During that run, Clemson’s combined record was 79-7. Then Georgia came calling at the start of the 2021 season. Georgia wanted to get to where Clemson had been. They needed to beat a team like the Tigers to show their success on the recruiting trail was translating onto the field. 

UGA started a national title season by smothering Clemson in a 10-3 victory where the best defense in modern college football history was on full display. “You’re either elite or you’re not,” was Georgia’s rallying cry through the summer, and became the lasting legacy of that game.

Since that night, Georgia has been elite. The Dawgs won back-to-back national titles before going 12-0 in the 2023 regular season. They came up short in the SEC Championship against Alabama, but many still believed the Bulldogs were the nation’s best team.

Clemson has been 30-10 since the start of 2021. The Tigers went 9-4 last year, and failed to win 10 games for the first time since 2010. His stubborn outlook on the portal and NIL has been criticized by some and laughed at by others. A win could change the perception of his program’s future and his own.

Now the two meet again. One is looking to stay on top. The other is looking to turn the sport on its head… Let’s dig in…

Clemson Offense vs Georgia Defense

- From a predictive standpoint, the first game of the season is almost always the most difficult. It’s gotten even more difficult in the portal era. Clemson was the only program in the FBS that didn’t take a transfer besides the three service academies. They return 7 starters on offense and 3 on defense. Dabo loves to talk about retention, but this is still a young roster. The Tigers only have 26 juniors and seniors on scholarship after losing 12 players to the portal and bringing in none. This actually makes the bowl game versus Kentucky an intriguing watch. All but a handful of Clemson’s projected starters were out there for that game. 

- The Tigers were beat soundly on a down-to-down basis in that game, but they ended +3 in the turnover column and pulled out a thrilling win late. Kentucky outgained Clemson by 3.2 yards per play (7.8 to 4.6). 

- Clemson was 117th in Red Zone Scoring Percentage last season. When the field shrank, they struggled. 

- The easiest place to start for Clemson is probably on the offensive line. They return a lot of production, which brings us to an important point about returning production. Not all returning production is good production. Clemson’s offensive line was decent at its best and subpar at its worst in 2023. Clemson gets Marcus Tate back at LG and Walker Parks back at RG after both were lost for the season last year. Parks was a starter in 2021 and 2022. He actually played in the UGA game 3 years ago, and gave up 6 pressures and 2 sacks. They also have a new Center in Ryan Linthicum. He was a backup last season.

- Clemson was unique last year, running a pretty close split of gap scheme and zone scheme. Most programs lean one way or the other, but the Tigers were 54.6% zone. Looking back on their season, they seemed to swap their scheme around depending on who they were playing that week. The Tigers swung all the way to 18 gap runs and 5 zone runs against Kentucky. Translation? They knew they couldn’t out push the Wildcats DL so they tried to out-leverage it. 

- Here are some overarching thoughts on this OL…

• LT - #71 Tristan Leigh - Leigh is an experienced player but he has given up big plays to DL’s much worse than Georgia’s. He allowed 7 pressures against Kentucky last year and 24 total on the season (more than any UGA OL in 2023). Better zone run blocker than gap scheme run blocker. 
• LG - #74 Marcus Tate - Tate is solid in pass protection. He is the best player on this OL, and only gave up 4 pressures in 303 pass block snaps last year. He is coming off of injury, but I’d expect him to be good. Expect UGA to try and overload him with stunts and delayed blitzes from the ILB’s on obvious pass downs. Tate is so-so against the run. Not bad, but he can be taken advantage of at times. 
• C - #53 Ryan Linthicum - We don’t have a good sample set on Linthicum, but the fact he didn’t crack the rotation last year with two guards hurt makes me a bit suspect. 
• RG - #64 Walker Parks - Parks gave up 26 pressures in 2021 and then 24 in 2022. In Clemson’s 2023 season opener he allowed 5 pressures against Duke. His run blocking was decent in 2021 but took a step back in 2022. This is a spot to watch for UGA to create some havoc.
• RT - #78 Blake Miller - Miller is as inconsistent as the rest of this OL to this point in his career. He allowed 6 pressures to Duke and another 6 versus Miami last year. Then he gave up 3 each versus South Carolina and Kentucky to end the year. He was also called for 6 holding penalties last season, which feels like a bunch. He’s a pretty good run blocker, particularly in gap scheme. 

- The million dollar question for this game is how much can Matt Luke improve this front five after coming onboard with the Tigers this offseason. The former UGA OL coach is good at coaching offensive lines, but what’s the actual ceiling here? Clemson had a PFF Pass Block Grade of 64.6 last year (71st). They had a Run Block Grade of 57.1 (91st). Luke is a gap scheme OL coach and Clemson was gap scheme heavy in their bowl win over UK, but UGA has so much quickness up front that going that route on Saturday feels risky. 

- He has a really good RB to make his OL look better. RB #7 Phil Mafah can play. He broke 39 tackles last season and he had 957 YDS on the season on 5.4 YPA. A little over 46% of his runs went outside, and Clemson will use inline TE’s a lot. Georgia needs to set edges on Saturday, but Clemson isn’t afraid to bust things up the middle with Mafah and let him try to get upfield in the A-Gaps. He has the size and vision to play behind pretty much any run scheme. Clemson will probably try to use some misdirection and pulls to split UGA’s DT’s at times. They run Inside Power up the A-Gaps very well. The Dawgs will have to read the OL and recognize when to shoot gaps and when to be patient and play their two-gap style of ball. If UGA can hold its space and not get overly aggressive then they should be able to limit big run plays.. 

- QB #2 Cade Klubnik has five-star pedigree, but he’s yet to put it all together. The passing game last year was extremely tame, and it’s hard to see it not being that way this season. The arm strength is fine for a college QB, but it’s not an NFL arm in my opinion. If you look at his throws outside the numbers, they often come from the near hash or on a rollout to the right. 

- 62.5% of Klubnik’s throws come between the numbers, and he throws outside the numbers to the right almost twice as much as he does to the left. My opinion is those trends are a product of him not being able to throw a flat ball on a 12-18 yard out route without being in danger of getting picked off. He threw 7 interceptable passes on 90 ATT’s in the 10-19 YDS range last year. He had 4 in 42 ATT’s on 20+ YDS throws. 

- Klubnik rarely pushed the ball deep last year, and he prefers the middle of the field on intermediate routes. He has shown that turning the ball over is in his nature, but he could be comfortable if Briningstool can find space up the middle. The best news for Georgia is that Starks will control a lot of what’s happening in the middle of the field and if Clemson wants to push it downfield then Klubnik is likely to have to make tight window throws. 

- Klubnik likes Corner Routes on the roll to the right, especially to the TE #9 Jake Briningstool (75 TGT/50 REC). He led the team with 75 TGT’s in 2023, and is a security blanket of sorts. He had 9 REC’s on 10 TGT’s in the bowl and he might be their biggest 3rd down target in this game because of the unproven nature of the rest of the pass catchers. UGA’s LB’s and Safeties will be key in coverage. 

- Klubnik does some good things with his eyes on RPO’s. He looks defenders off into the flat well and then he snaps his eyes up and fires downfield. He’s not always accurate on those second level throws, but he does influence defenders well. He’s just not always that accurate when he shoots the ball to the second level. 

- Klubnik is more athletic than you may think. He avoids sacks pretty regularly and does it with his eyes downfield. He makes some decent throws while scrambling or backpedaling, and UGA’s DB’s will need to be aware of it when plays start to break down and he leaves the pocket. Clemson will also run him at times in designed packages. Those usually are off RPO’s, so it’s his choice to run. He only had 3 runs of 15+ yards last year, but he did scramble for 30 first downs with his legs. The Bulldogs will need to keep contain on him on 3rd downs or he’ll keep possessions alive despite the back end doing its job in coverage. 

- Klubnik’s numbers aren’t significantly better versus the blitz versus when he’s not blitzed. Actually, his YPA drops from 6.8 to 5.7 when he isn’t blitzed. Ditto for play-action- He’s just 6.4 YPA on play-action throws versus 6.0 on regular dropbacks. Clemson also averaged just 4.2 YPA on screens last year. 

- All of that tells us something about Klubnik, but it probably tells us more about his WR’s. The most remarkable thing about them is how unremarkable they were in 2023. WR #6 Tyler Brown in the slot was the most productive at 68 TGT/52 REC for 531 YDS, but 153 of those came against Syracuse. He had 6 catches against UNC for 32 YDS. He had 7 against Georgia Tech for 41 YDS. He had 5 against South Carolina for 40 YDS. You’re not beating Georgia getting 5-7 yards per catch out of your main dudes. 

- WR #0 Antonio Williams averaged less than 10 YPC last year in 5 games of action, but he’ll likely start at X and he’s got some wiggle at 5’10? At the X should be WR #8 Adam Randall, and he is 6’2 and 225 LBS, but he had just 22 REC’s for 250 YDS in 13 games last season… The most realistic hope for Clemson to be truly explosive in the passing game is for freshman WR #12 Bryant Wesco or freshman WR #1 TJ Moore to have a “hello world” moment on Saturday. Wesco is 6’2” and was a top 100 overall recruit. Moore was a five-star who is 6’3” and has some decent size at 198 pounds, but breaking out against this UGA team is a big ask for a kid who was playing at a private school last fall. 

- Clemson was 121st in the nation last year with just 6 passing yards per attempt. Put simply, this offense struggled to create explosive plays through the air. Once they get into long yardage and depend on Klubnik to throw downfield, their chances of success go down significantly. The Tigers had just a 29% Success Rate last year when faced with 2nd & 7+ or 3rd & 5+ or 4th & 5+.

- Considering the fact that UGA’s 2022 and 2023 defenses were both top three nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed (26.7% in 2023) it feels like this game could get real messy for the Tigers if they’re not getting 4-5+ yards regularly on 1st & 10. 

Georgia Offense vs Clemson Defense

- This defense was in or near the top ten in most major statistical categories last year, but they lose a lot of veteran depth and will have a lot of inexperience in the secondary. 

- Clemson brings back big 315 pounder DL/DE #11 Peter Woods. He’ll line up as a 4I DE or 3-Tech DT. He’s got a lot of elite traits, and hit the 20 pressure mark last year with just 175 pass rush snaps. He’s a gap filler in the run game as well, and the only real criticism you could make of his game is that he sometimes misses a tackle in the hole. I am curious to see what kind of shape he is in. He never played more than 33 snaps in a single game last year. Clemson needs him on the field for way more than that against this UGA OL. 

- On the right side will be EDGE #12 TJ Parker. He is the leading returning pressure getter for Clemson with 35 pressures and 6 sacks. He is a good run defender as well. Clemson plays heavier players on the edges in a lot of their fronts instead of doing the MINT style front like UGA where you have a stand-up OLB. I expect them to be good

- The DL is deep by ACC standards. The other potential playmakers to really watch up front are #55 Payton Page and former blue-chip DT Vic Burley. If this game is gonna go Clemson’s way they’re going to have to disrupt the interior of UGA’s OL. Page had 15 pressures a year ago and is a serviceable run defender. Burley is an unknown, but Clemson needs someone like him to emerge in a game like this. 

- Clemson will play a lot of man on the back end, including on the outside receivers. If you get into 3rd & long against them they will bring 5+ rushers more often than not. Hell, they’ll bring 5-6 on any down. That’s going to put a lot of emphasis on UGA’s boundary WR’s against Clemson’s CB’s. 

- The Clemson secondary lost a ton from last year, and the guys who have played have done so mostly in spot duty or blowout games. There’s an element of mystery to how they will be used and where exactly they will line up and when. 

- These corners are young and inexperienced, and we don’t have a ton of tape on them… CB #20 Aveion Terrell is the younger brother of former Clemson great AJ Terrell. He wasn’t really tested much in the bowl, and he played a lot of his snaps last year as a rotation player. Frankly, I don’t know what to make of him yet. He gave up 7 TGT/7 REC for 63 YDS versus FAU last year, but he performed well against UNC, South Carolina and ND. He had 32 TGT/15 REC’s for only 115 YDS last year, which shows promise. If he lines up versus Colbie Young then UGA has about a six-inch size advantage on the outside. 

- CB #19 Jeadyn Lukus is the other boundary corner who is projected to start. He is the guy I would test early and often outside if I was Mike Bobo. He only had 118 coverage snaps last season. He played 19 snaps in coverage against FSU last year and gave up 4 REC’s on 7 TGT’s for 68 YDS and a TD. 

- CB #2 Shelton Lewis will rotate some as well. He has just 89 career snaps in coverage as well, so I don’t know exactly what to make of him yet. He does look a bit slow at times when trying to cover 90 degree cuts like out routes and in-routes. He has some promising stuff on tape, like the 3 PBU’s against Georgia Tech last year, then you see him targeted 6 times by Kentucky because he’s caught out of position at moments. If he’s on the field, I would run screens to his side as well as swing passes and sweeps. He’s not a strong run defender and that could be a place where UGA breaks open a big play.

- We do have tape on #36 S/SCB Khalil Barnes. He plays the slot/nickel corner type role most of the time for Clemson, and he was feasted on by Kentucky in the bowl game. The Wildcats targeted him 8 times for 6 REC’s and 156 YDS. About half of that yardage came after the catch, and he gave up 2 TD’s in the midst of all that. Simply put, he’s a nice run defender at times, but he can’t run with a Dominic Lovett or an Arian Smith or an Anthony Evans. This is the duck. 

- In the back end is S #9 RJ Mickens. He is a pretty good tackler and is likely to be in a lot of single-high looks when Clemson brings its blitz packages. If UGA gets him in man coverage there could be a play to be had, but he is another guy it’s hard to know how to feel about. 

- Mickens could be joined by #24 Tyler Venables at the other safety position. He is the son of former Clemson DC Brent Venables, and didn’t play last year after seeing 150 coverage snaps (14 TGT/11 REC, 168 YDS) in 2022. I’ll just say it straight… He’s a nice player but he doesn’t seem like the guy you’d want matched up on Evans or Smith or Lovett. He’s shown the ability to miss a tackle or two in space as well. If he’s out there, Georgia is likely to hunt him. 

- A lot of hype has been going around about this LB corps. They can thump in the run game, and you can see they look comfortable in the box. #0 Barrett Carter was a five-star and because of that, there is an assumption he’s a stud. Reality is a bit different. He is a serviceable run defender but he misses a whole lot of tackles. Last season he missed 17, which was 20.5% of his tackle opportunities. #21 Kobe McCloud will line up next to him, and split time (depending on the personnel package) with #17 Wade Woodaz. 

- Those 3 LB’s have their moments in run defense and pass rush, but the coverage numbers from last year are eye opening… 

• McCloud 2023 - 31 COV snaps, 4 TGT/4 REC for 32 YDS
• Carter 2023 - 299 COV snaps, 27 TGT/17 REC for 273 YDS (Long of 72 YDS + 197 YAC)
• Woodaz 2023 - 139 COV snaps, 16 TGT/12 REC for 95 YDS (69 YAC)

- It is possible we see some of five-star LB Sammy Brown. The Georgia native chose to go up the road to Swinney’s program, but he was a five-star for a reason. He can rush the passer some off the edge and is athletic, but he still is a bit stiff. If UGA gets him matched up on a LB or TE they can break a big one. 

- Kentucky was able to stress Clemson in both the run and pass games with orbit motions pre-snap. You can scheme things up on this defense by running guys out of the backfield laterally and then sending them vertical. They don’t pass assignments off to each other very well. 

Special Teams

Clemson will start a true freshman kicker in this game named Nolan Hauser. He holds the national high-school record for career field-goals made with 66. Last year’s Clemson team had major issues in the kicking game, coming in at 118th nationally with just 60.9% of FG’s made. This will be a big environment for an unseasoned kicker. 

Clemson’s high level depth has been slowly eaten away at by Swinney’s refusal to use the portal. That will show up throughout a four-quarter game, but it can also be visible at times on Special Teams. They got burned for a 102-yard TD return by Barrion Brown of Kentucky in the bowl game. The athletes trying to run him down weren’t of the caliber that he is. Watch UGA’s returners in this game. There’s as good chance UGA could break a significant kick or punt return. 

Final Analysis/Score Prediction

I’ll say again that Week 1 is the hardest to predict because of all the unknowns that come with both teams. Any game includes a range of outcomes, and Clemson is a talented enough team to stress Georgia at times. The question we have to ask ourselves is what the recipe looks like for the Tigers to win. 

When Clemson has the ball…

It’s hard to see Clemson’s offense hitting big plays through the air in this one. Yes, Georgia has new faces in the back seven in Aguero (STAR), Humphrey/Harris (CB2) and Jackson/Bolden (S). It’s still hard to see the scenario where Clemson can put together explosives in the passing game. If they’re going to, then they need to score on them. That feels like a big stretch when considering UGA’s history of being the best tackling defense in college football. 

Unless the two freshmen WR’s (Wesco and Moore) can make some hero plays on the outside, but the best path for Clemson’s offense in this game feels similar to what we saw from Georgia Tech against FSU. The Tigers need to run the ball well on first downs and stay out of third-and-long. They’ll have to rely on short chunks in the passing game underneath and control the clock on long drives that shorten this game. 

Georgia’s edge setting and interior run defense will be tested out of the gate here. I expect to see better play on the edge against the run, and UGA’s linebackers should look a year older and react a bit quicker getting to the outside of the box. Clemson might catch UGA at times with Klubnik’s legs, but they will adjust quickly. This is an RPO heavy offense, and Mondon, Allen, Wilson (and maybe Bowles) will need to be disciplined with their eyes. This won’t be above their ability level though.

Clemson can live on Mafah at times, and they can work the TE Briningstool at others, but eventually the ball has to get pushed into the end zone. Clemson’s red zone offense was putrid  last year because it lacked weapons. Maybe Wesco or Moore can be Klubnik’s saving grace down inside the 20. I’d be surprised if Clemson doesn’t try some fades to them or the 6’2” Adam Randall at some point, but we’ve already established that Klubnik’s game isn’t living outside the numbers. 

When Georgia has the ball…

The comforting thing for Georgia is that they don’t need a recipe to workout in order to win this game. They can play this thing however they want. They can probably win by running the football in a game with less possessions, and they can probably win by throwing the ball and running tempo. 

Georgia’s offensive line comes into this game with lots of positive reviews throughout the offseason. If the Dawgs can run the ball with consistency this game will get ugly. Clemson’s strategy of bringing pressure has been a pattern through the years. Will they continue that with this young back end? 

I think they’re probably best served to try. If they play zone against Beck he will shred them, but the flip side of that is UGA can run out a set of speedy WR’s who can get separation quickly and let Beck slip the ball out behind Clemson’s pressure packages. Maybe that’s hitting Bell on slants, and maybe it’s involving Arian Smith or Anthony Evans. 

A lot of people are worried about Clemson’s pressure packages in this game, and they could create some havoc plays if they’re timed right. They could also cause UGA to break big explosive plays. Watch for that in short yardage if UGA goes heavy. There is a chance Clemson loads the line and Branson Robinson gets behind a defensive line that gets upfield too quickly. 

Beck's average time to throw on pass attempts last season was 2.22 seconds. That was the fastest of any Power 5 conference starter with at least 300 dropbacks in 2023. Good things happened when he got the ball out quickly. He threw it in under 2.5 seconds on 56.7% of his dropbacks, and was 208/259 passing (80.3% completion) for 2,127 YDS (8.2 YPA) with 17 TD/1 INT on those plays. Nobody in college football is processing things faster than Carson Beck. 

If you want to live on the blitz, Beck is the wrong guy for that. He was a 70.8% passer last year against the blitz, and he went for 9.2 YPA and 11 TD’s with 0 INT’s. 

In short, Clemson can lay back and let UGA’s run game lean forward, or it can try to force the issue and see if it can fool Beck with a simulated pressure that lets someone step into a passing lane and cause a turnover or two. History says they’ll take the second route. 

Final Analysis/Score Prediction

Georgia’s RB room will be thinner than we had once expected, but it still has players in it who can catch the ball. The solve for Clemson’s blitzing DL is UGA’s RB’s catching passes in the flat, on Angle Routes over the middle, and possibly on Wheel Routes down the boundary. Georgia can play in 12 Personnel sets and still run orbit motions and WR screens that exploit Clemson’s aggressiveness and make them chase UGA’s skill players side to side. 

Looking at Clemson’s 2023 tape, I think Georgia hits a big play on an end-around or reverse to one of the speedy wideouts. I think we also see them build some sort of downfield pass play off of the pre-snap orbit motions. UGA can then start slipping the TE’s up the seams or hitting them on tunnel screens off of that. Delp will be involved, but don’t be surprised if Luckie or Yurosek has an explosive play or a wow moment with the ball in their hands. 

I like UGA to keep Clemson's defense honest with some shot plays, and I think Arian or Lovett can hit a big one on Barnes or Venables. The weakness here is the safeties and the slot corner. UGA's passing game can feast on those guys, especially the TE's and inside receivers.

I expect Bobo and Beck to use quick passes, but I think this run game might be able to stand on its own either way. If the run game gets going well enough for UGA to freeze Clemson’s backers on play-action then this could get ugly. Either way, I would look for UGA to widen the field. Beck throws the ball better up the seams than anyone in the sport right now, but UGA will want to get Clemson out of the box first. 

I think Georgia will try to run early, and I think they will have good success doing it, but Beck can throw Clemson out of its heavy defensive sets if he needs to. Either way, Georgia has a path as long as they counterpunch correctly. 

As for the other side of the ball, I have learned a lot over the years of doing this piece, but one of them is that you can’t beat Georgia living on small chunks. They’re too good in coverage and they close too quickly and tackle too well. Clemson is either going to come into this game and die a slow death or they’re going to try and make some explosive plays happen. Georgia’s pass rush might make that a foolish thing to try. 

Wesco and Moore will be good ones, but expecting them to beat Georgia consistently on the perimeter in their first college games feels like a lot. If Clemson gets down two touchdowns in the first half then it’s likely we see an INT from Starks or Jackson/Bolden.

I am really confident in this DL’s ability to get pressure on Klubnik against this Clemson OL. I expect Jalon Walker to have a very big game coming off the edge on third down, and I expect Mykel Williams to meet him at the QB. This pair of tackles is good enough to win games in the ACC, but they aren’t good enough to hold Georgia’s pass rushers in check. 

This game will be a hello world moment for Damon Wilson. He showed his pass rush skills last year, but he’ll show his ability to two-gap in 2024. Chambliss will still be involved, but I expect this group of edge defenders to look deep and capable on Saturday. 

Mafah is a good back, and he will make some plays on his own, but Stackhouse and Miller should hold up well. If UGA can get some snaps out of Jarrett at nose it could stop Clemson’s bread and butter Inside Power run play. This defensive line has heard questions all offseason, and I have a feeling they will play inspired. 

Maybe Briningstool can hit a play or two matched up on the LB’s, and maybe Clemson can grind out yards on the ground. They’ll need some major turnover luck and a special teams play or two to win this game. Much has been made of the Matt Luke hire, but helmet communications take any signal knowledge off the table and Luke’s OL’s took time to gel early in the season during his time at Georgia. 

It’s hard to see Clemson scoring more than 20 unless some sort of massive change has happened that we just haven’t seen. Clemson will play hard and they’ll be motivated, but Georgia is just better. A blowout is on the table here, especially if Dabo really goes all out trying to win this game by forcing the issue. 

If Clemson tries to bomb it downfield and go ultra aggressive on defense then UGA could hand them an embarrassing loss. It feels more likely that Clemson takes its time and tries to keep this thing close with the hopes of limiting possessions and getting a break or two. 

Georgia 34 - Clemson 17