Advanced Stat/Scheme Preview - Georgia vs Kentucky

And we are back... Welcome to the 2024 SEC schedule. 

Georgia heads to Kentucky on Saturday night for a game that lost a whole lotta luster when the Cats were blown out at home by South Carolina last weekend. What should we expect? Let's get into it...

Georgia Offense vs Kentucky Defense

- Kentucky lost 31-6 to the Gamecocks, so the talk across the country about this game has understandably focused on whether UK can save its season and make a bowl game. Lost in the opining about the blowout loss to South Carolina is the fact that Kentucky's defense actually played pretty well on a down to down basis last Saturday. The Wildcats held SoCar to a 31% Offensive Success Rate* (for reference, UK actually had a 36% Offensive Success Rate in this game). 

*Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria: 

• The offense scored
• 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
• 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
• 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go

- The South Carolina offense that the Wildcats faced last weekend is nowhere near as potent as the one they will see from UGA, but they did manage to create defensive Havoc Plays** on 30% of SoCar's offensive snaps. 

**Havoc Plays refers to the percentage of plays in which the defense recorded a TFL, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass or broke up a pass.

- A big part of UK's havoc creation on defense was against the run. Actually, almost all of it was. The Gamecocks ran the ball 31 times last Saturday, and the Wildcats stopped 11 of those plays (35% of the rush attempts) for no gain or a loss. 16 of SoCar's 31 runs were stopped for 2 yards or less. In the end, the Gamecocks ran for just 2.3 yards a carry and a total output of 79 yards. 

- If UK is going to keep this game close or make it interesting, the run defense will need to be the reason why. As we head into Week 3 of the college football season, Kentucky is allowing just a 21.9% Rush Success Rate to opposing offenses. That number is the 3rd best in the nation, and it's probably the one thing this program can hang its hat on right now. The two guys who are keying things the most for the run defense are DT #0 Deone Walker, and MLB #54 D'Eryk Jackson. Walker is a projected top ten pick next fall, but he didn't flash as much as expected last Saturday. Jackson is a high motor player who makes plays when they're there to be made. He is paired up at the second level with former UGA LB #2 Jamon Dumas-Johnson. You know Dumas-Johnson... He plays hard and willingly fills gaps, but he isn't quite athletic enough to always make plays on the edges of the box. 

- South Carolina still managed some chunk runs last weekend, and the reason why is that this UK defense eventually wore down. It's hard to expect a team not to tire out when the offense is going three-and-out frequently and struggling to sustain drives. The play that broke UK's back last Saturday night was a 21-yard run on 3rd & 1 that set SoCar up on the goal line. The ensuing touchdown made the score 24-6 with 28 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter. 

- I thought South Carolina's most effective runs came on Gap Scheme*** runs, particularly on inside runs up the middle of the UK defense. It was effective at allowing SoCar to get around #0 Walker without having to move him with brute force. Georgia is more likely to be able to move Walker with zone runs, but that doesn't mean they have to. ETN 

***Gap Scheme - In a gap scheme run play, the offensive linemen on either side of the intended running lane will block down or away from the gap where the runner is going. This will often leave one or more defender unaccounted for outside of the gap where the ball is going, usually on the back side of the play (opposite side of the Center from where the run is going). The offensive lineman or linemen who were originally on that backside will "pull" to the other side and help lead the ball carrier. Zone Scheme runs involve every OL blocking the man in front of them and moving forward along the same path. It is incumbent upon the RB to read the zone blocks and pick the right lane to run through. Gap Scheme runs are designed to go in one lane only. 

- Kentucky really struggled to defend pass plays where SoCar overloaded one side of the field last week. All that means, is that the Gamecocks had 3 WR's run to the same side of the field at different depths. The Wildcats secondary got lost in their assignments of switching off those pass catchers amongst one another. That happened a couple times on Switch Concepts, where UK defenders had to deal with WR's who were crossing paths. SoCar ran their slot receivers on Wheel Routes and the outside receiver crossed over the wheel by running a Post Route. It created confusion in the back end and it led to SoCar getting a wide open TD pass from the 24 yardline on the first drive of the game. 

- Beck isn't going to extend plays at the same clip that Sellers did at QB for SoCar last week, but he's shown good ability to slide around and extend plays so far this year. UK really struggled with their scramble rules in the secondary last week. They just kind of lost guys as plays got longer. Watch out for a busted coverage or two if Beck escapes the pocket and keeps his eyes upfield. 

- Kentucky really doesn't have a defensive lineman who should scare UGA except for Walker, and I haven't seen him playing like a first round pick to this point in 2024. He will probably turn the switch to high for a primetime home game against the #1 team in the sport. On the edge, keep an eye on #13 JJ Weaver. He had 29 pressures and 5 sacks a year ago, and could maybe make Truss strain at times. 

- Kentucky likes to blitz its corners and safeties at times, and in general they played tight up to the line and sold out on the run against South Carolina. The problem? A freshman QB in his first SEC game was able to make them pay for playing with light numbers in the back end. Sellers was 4/5 for 98 YDS against the blitz. The Wildcats also bit hard on play-action when they saw it- Sellers was 3/3 for 73 YDS and a TD when the Gamecocks used it on Saturday night. 

- There is a lot that is different about these UK teams from the ones that were able to drag UGA into some slugfests in the past, but the secondary might be the biggest issue right now. The Cats are 3rd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate allowed, but the flip side of that is they are 97th in Passing Success Rate allowed at 42.5%. 

- Right boundary CB #1 Maxwell Hairston has shown he will give up big plays to not great wideouts. He was targeted 2 times for 2 REC's and 53 YDS last week. Opposite of him is #6 Jonquis Hardaway, who gave up some plays at times last year but is off to an okay start in 2024. I think some of that has been less about his stellar play and more about his opponents, but he has only allowed 15 YDS on 4 TGT/2 REC so far this year. 

- The place where UK really looks like a mess is up the middle of the back seven. Dumas-Johnson has been their best LB in coverage by far, but we saw him struggle when stretched outside the box or past the first down sticks in man at UGA. #17 Rayner is alright as well but the rest of the LB's could be picked on by any of UGA's RB's or TE's.

- Strong Safety #11 Zion Childress is a nice player and will do his job more often than not, but anyone else they trot out there on the back end should be tested early and often. FS #14 Ty Bryant is easily confused by motion and play-action and will freeze as guys run past him if you give him some eye candy. I would hunt S #25 Jordan Lovett as well. Both he and Bryant allowed TD's last week and struggle with switches. #3 Alex Afari only played 6 coverage snaps last week and busted for a 36 yard pass play. Slot CB #10 Jantzen Dunn didn't give up any big plays yet this year, but I think he might be the player I'd test the most early on. He was at Ohio State back in 2021 before transferring, and he doesn't have too much experience so far in his career. He had 9 coverage snaps last week and let some things develop around him, but SoCar didn't get the ball his way. I think UGA can hit Lovett or another inside WR for a big play if he is in the game on Saturday night.  

Kentucky Offense vs Georgia Defense

- Brock can hum a pretty deep ball when he steps into things and releases the football with confidence. It can be really gorgeous and we all know he can spin the ball. Things tend to breakdown for him on short/intermediate throws and when he has to get to his second or third read. 

- Last week, Kentucky had one of the worst performances from the QB position that we've seen in the SEC this century. Vandagriff was 3/10 passing with an INT that was returned for a TD. He hit one boundary shot for 32 yards to Dane Key on the first drive. It really was a pretty throw! After that, he didn't hit a pass over 2 yards the rest of the day. When kept clean, Vandagriff was 2/5 for 28 YDS with an INT. When pressured, Vandagrif was 1/6 for 2 YDS on 9 dropbacks. Most college QB's are bad under pressure, but this was a Chernobyl level meltdown. After the pick-six, former Rutgers QB #8 Gavin Wimsatt entered the game. He was involved in some designed run packages from the start of the game, but playing him at QB is a white flag of sorts- This kid threw for 6 yards an attempt and completed just 47.8% of his passes as the main man in Piscataway a year ago. Last Saturday, he went 3/7 for 14 YDS and 1 INT on 8 dropbacks as a passer.

- Kentucky has some good athletes at WR, but they're not all that good at actually playing receiver. The most polished in my opinion is #6 Dane Key, and he can catch passes in traffic downfield. The bad QB play coupled with the athleticism of UGA's corners makes it fair to ask where UK is going to get these guys involved other than deep shots and screens. #7 Barrion Brown is a speedster who can do things with the ball in his hands off end-arounds and on special teams, but I'm not sure he has the route savvy yet to really work UGA's corners in a sustained way. This wideout group is likely to be in go route mode a lot. The Cats could just try to chuck it down the boundaries and hope for the best. If they try that too much against UGA's safeties it could lead to an INT. 

- This next piece of info really deserves its own bullet point... Kentucky's QB's combined to go 6/18 for 44 YDS and 2 INT's across 22 dropbacks last week. In total, they got 2.4 yards per attempt out of their throws. When you factor in sack yardage, Kentucky called 22 passes and netted THREE TOTAL YARDS across those plays. That's 0.14 yards a pass play against the South Carolina Gamecocks of one Shane Beamer. Buddy, I can smell the stink from here... Now they have to play Georgia, which seems cruel in one way and hilarious in another. 

- Aside from the obvious of getting past the OL, getting pressure on Vandagriff comes down to covering his first read. His average time to throw on those 9 dropbacks when pressured was 3.4 seconds. On his clean throws, his time to throw was 1.9 seconds. 

- That's not to say that all of Brock's pressures were due to his inability to get the ball out. South Carolina has a sneaky good DL that is one of the top 4-5 in the SEC. They whipped the UK front at a lot of junctures in this game. In total, SoCar racked up 20 pressures over just 22 dropbacks. That's almost one every passing play. What should terrify Kentucky with UGA coming to town is the fact that TWELVE different Gamecocks recorded a pressure in last week's game. This UGA defense has 15 players who have a pressure through 2 weeks.

- We normally like to point out a player or two on the opposing OL who UGA might be able to pick on to get to the QB, but this week you have them across the board. One of the things hurting UK is the loss of G #62 Jager Burton, who is a good to serviceable player. He gave up 2 pressures last week before leaving with an injury and is doubtful for Saturday's game. Georgia's DL rotations are deep enough to breakthrough anywhere across the UK OL at anytime, but the spot to watch most closely is UGA's DE/Edge guys against UK LT #69 Marques Cox. He allowed 6 pressures and 2 sacks last week. Kentucky will use TE's to try and help him, but I'm not sure it will matter. 

- UK will spread run game touches around to WR's, QB's and multiple backs, but the main man right now is Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. He's a tough runner, and gets north/south in a hurry. He's not an elite top end speed guy, but he will put his head down and fall forward a lot. UK really found most of its traction on the ground behind RG #52 Jalen Farmer last week. The Cats went for 7.8 yards a carry running between him and C #75 Eli Cox. They hit some runs off the left side as well (both with and without inline TE's), and will try some jet sweeps with speedy wideouts. For UK in this game, the goal will be to get 3-4 yards on 1st down with the RB's. Last week they found themselves held to 2 yards or less on 13 of their 41 carries (32%). 

- The Cats did find themselves with a Rushing Success Rate of 53.7% last week. That's definitely not a bad result by any means, but the Cats had too many runs mixed in that went for essentially no gain. They mixed Inside Power (gap scheme) and Inside Zone Read (zone scheme) concepts at a pretty even clip last week. The zone runs were 44.4% successful on 8 attempts, but they only managed 3.8 yards a carry on them. On the plus side, the inside gap scheme runs hit for a 75% success rate and 5.2 yards a carry on 12 attempts. That's gonna have to be the plan for this game against UGA. 

- The second most productive concept for UK last weekend was QB Draw. It was only used 4 times for 36 yards, but it did average 9 yards a play and hit for successful plays twice. There is certainly a decent chance that Kentucky decides to abandon the pass almost entirely and see if they can hit some QB runs by taking advantage of the extra run blocker in the box. 

- UK runs a lot of 2 TE sets (also known as 12 Personnel). They have run 104 plays so far in 2024 and about 20% have come with 2 TE's on the field. They're running the ball at an efficient 58.3% success rate for 4.9 yards a play out of those sets, so keep an eye out for that early and often. It might be the way they look a lot of the night if they lean into the QB run game plan and just try to grind out a couple drives and shorten the game. 

- Even with the putrid QB play, UK has a unique ability to sustain drives. They averaged 7.2 plays a possession last week, and they only gained an average of 23.4 yards a possession. 

Final Analysis/Score Prediction

Despite the demoralizing loss last week, I still expect Kentucky to get up for this game. It will feel personal to  Dumas-Johnson and Vandagriff. It's also a huge opportunity to get the #1 team in the country at home under the lights on national television. 

The great mystery here is whether or not Kentucky will try to run a real offense or not. Looking at what Vandagriff and Wimsatt did last week, they are borderline unplayable in this league. Brock doesn't see underneath defenders when he tries to throw into the deeper parts of the field. Wimsatt can only throw at one speed and is so inaccurate at times that he can fully miss a wide-receiver who is 6-8 yards away. On top of that, UK's wideouts aren't that consistent with their route running and how they cut certain patterns.

If Kentucky decides to make the ego play here and run a real offense with actual passing in the gameplan, then all levels of beatdown are on the table. I could see Vandagriff making a nice throw or two in this game, but I could also see him staring into triple coverage and letting one fly like last week. 

Mark Stoops isn't a dummy. You don't survive 12 seasons at an SEC program without having a little bit of PR savvy. I think UK is going to come out on Saturday night and run a modified Wing-T or Read-Option style offense that heavily incorporates the QB run. If they don't then they are foolish, especially if bad weather arrives in Lexington and makes it even harder for Kentucky to pass. 

Assuming that happens, I think this game will give us a good look at all the talent UGA has stacked on the edges. Georgia looks like Georgia so far this season against the run. They set edges and two-gap on the defensive line. They fill run lanes and scrape around the outside at linebacker. Kentucky might be able to shorten the game and stack more first downs together running that style of offense, but I'm still not seeing a scenario where they can actually score points with any sort of consistency or predictability. When the field shrinks, it will get harder. Even with the poor QB play, the Wildcats managed to get 4 scoring opportunities (trips inside the 40 yard line) to South Carolina's 5 last week. The problem was they only scored 1.5 points per an opportunity. Trying to score in the red zone with this offense against UGA feels like a really tall task. 

Whether UK decides to abandon the pass or not, their only hope of surviving for a chunk of this game is by getting 4+ yards on first downs. If UGA gets them into 3rd & 5+ over and over we're going to see a lot of punts. We might see a lot of sacks too. I expect a big game for Damon Wilson if the QB's are dropping back. I would also expect a multiple sack performance from Jalon Walker to be on the table. There is a major chance to eat well on Saturday night for Walker and whoever else is coming off the right edge of the Georgia defense against the struggling UK left tackle on passing downs. 

In the run game, UGA will do what they do. The Dawgs play team defense and that will continue, but Ingram-Dawkins could have a national TV game that make NFL scouts start talking loudly about his ability. I'd also keep a close eye on Gabe Harris. The sophomore has been really strong in run situations so far in 2024, and he plays with a physicality that will be just what the doctor ordered for a game like this one. 

I could see UK hitting a deep ball to Key or Brown at some juncture, but there won't be much in the passing game outside of screens or shovel passes. 

On offense, if Georgia is able to get 4-5 yards on 1st down runs then this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. Kentucky has been a good run defense so far, but they did that against Southern Miss and a South Carolina team that has had all sorts of OL struggles in recent years. This is Georgia, and Georgia is going to find a way to run the ball. 

It might not look like 6 yards every touch, but just like the Clemson game, UGA will wear this front down over four quarters and create some explosive runs that negate any lack of efficiency on a down to down basis. My money is on UGA using Etienne a lot in the passing game in this one. Getting him matchups in space should be a priority for this offense every week, and I think that's a natural move if the weather prevents UGA from really stretching the field like it usually would. The forecast for Saturday night now looks better than it has all week, and that could make this a moot point. 

If UGA gets clean conditions to play in then I think they will throw early on UK just like last year. Beck should see lots of matchups he likes across the board. The aforementioned right cornerback Hairston is a guy he will want to pick on. If things stay as they have, Dillon Bell should get to play across from him a lot, and Colbie Young will too. Those guys could have some explosives, and it would be great for UGA to get Young on tape working some routes besides the red zone fade patterns. 

As for the rest of the targets, anyone who gets across from those safeties and slot corners could be in for a big play. The easy choice is for Lawson Luckie to turn in another big play or two, and I think that is likely. I also think we could see Delp or Yurosek get loose up the seams or on a corner route to the wide side of the field off of play action. UGA will want to work switch routes across the board, and Lovett/Smith should be involved with crossing the formation a lot. I like Lovett's chances of showing out better than Arian's because of the Kentucky slot corners, but working Arian has been a priority so far this year. If a big play comes for him on Saturday I expect it to be out of the slot. 

All in all, I think Beck could throw for 350 on this UK team if UGA wants him to. I also think Georgia can grind this defense down and have a really efficient night on the ground. The Dawgs won't empty the playbook in this one, partially because of Bama being in two weeks and partially because Smart seems unlikely to run it up on Stoops. Still, I think Georgia would really like to hit its stride before the bye week arrives.

Kentucky will be game for 20 minutes or so, but the UK defense will get demoralized as the offense sputters more and more. I think UGA has a flurry of points somewhere close to the middle 8 minutes of the game, and then looks to keep everyone healthy. 

Georgia 38 - Kentucky 9